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GF Futures: coke market into the winter
发布时间:2015-10-23  浏览次数:

"To the Shanxi based trade association cut price" "local government to promote industry integration, zuoyouzuoqiang"...... These strategies are not able to stop the decline in the coke market, coke prices fell from the highest 2500 yuan to 760 yuan, down nearly 70%.

In such a difficult environment, where the coking industry in the spring? Needle in this regard, Kunming, GF futures business department of Dalian Commodity Exchange held the 2015 half coking industry analysis report ", inviting KISCO the procurement of raw materials market analyst Li Guo Zhao analyzed the development trend of the industry as a whole.

"Coke market since 2008 peaked in 2009 the country" 4 trillion "infrastructure policy stimulus appeared for a period of 2 years of rebound, after the industry into the doldrums in the state, has been to move bones, life insurance peer race stage." Zhao Liguo said.

He believes that the main reason for the formation of the current situation is still overcapacity. "Coke from 2011 prices fell into two stages: the first stage is from 2011 to 2013 demand growth phase of the excess, which is a relative surplus, upstream production growth faster than the downstream demand growth. The second half of 2013 is the second half of the demand for the decline in the second half so far, which is an absolute surplus, the downstream demand to enter the top area, and even began to shrink."

Zhao Liguo said the second phase of the market is characterized by a decline is very smooth, basically no rebound, the price gradually out of the cost, the whole industry chain costs in a disadvantageous position of the enterprise has been a loss.

What will the future steel production will fall? Zhao Liguo made a calculation.

"The world's developed countries in per capita output of steel reached 5 to 10 years after the sharp decline in steel output to 500 kilograms per capita, because the intensity of steel consumption is greatly reduced. And now China's per capita steel production is now more than 600 kilograms, if the next 5-10 per capita steel production fell to 500 kilograms, then steel production will fall to 6.8 tons of the following, that is now more than 8 tons to cut 1.2 tons. The corresponding iron ore demand fell by 2 tons, 50000000 tons of coke demand."

Zhao Liguo said that even in accordance with the scale of the reduction in steel production, it is enough to make us steel industry chain into the more cold winter, in accordance with the reduced capacity utilization rate of 75%, which means that in the next 5-10 years, we need to eliminate or transfer nearly 2 tons (equivalent to 7 Yunnan province) steel production capacity and the corresponding coke production capacity.

Therefore, Zhao Liguo judgment, the next six months or even longer period of time, the main trend of the coke market price is still weak, many steel enterprises in 2016, coke prices will fall into a more difficult situation, the enterprise will further increase the reduction of production, the market is still a new stage to focus on the transition point of industry chain enterprises to eliminate backward production capacity. Reporter Ni Yuan reported (source: Kunming daily)


 
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